September 24, 2015

Karl's BorB Report Logo Heading

Wall Street_BEAR

THE BULL OR BEAR DAILY REPORT

By: Karl Hormann

 (Mini-Turbo Portfolio)  Live Gains since Jan/2013: +100.23%

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NOTE: NEW MINI-TURBO PORTFOLIO (SEE BOTTOM OF NEWSLETTER).  RETURNED +70%+ in 2013 & 24% in 2014

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BTI Signal:  **BEAR**

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 (BTI:  Bull or Bear Trend Indicator Signal)  Gains since Jan/2012: +10.12%

We are 100% cash for BTI Signal since 9/23 open.

(Using QQQ & IWM)

 

September 24thThe more I watch the markets the more I’m convinced we are in a bear market. In bear markets you get sharp rallies followed by continued lower prices. After last weeks oversold rally, we have seen four out of five days of selling. That is definitely not bullish action. But as I have said in the past, I would not fall in love with being bearish and be in 100% cash because when the Fed decides this is enough, any Central bank action could send the Dow up +1000 points in a hurry. So yes I am staying extremely cautious with plenty of cash in our accounts.  But I’m not thinking a 2009 event of a 50% correction is in the cards. Time will tell, but for sure we need to let this fear play out.

 

The interesting part is that during this stock weakness, Gold and the miners have started to perk up. I was looking at one particular stock to add to my future inflation portfolio which is “Freeport Macmoran Copper & Gold” (FCX). The stock is off of a 52 week low and on September 4th an insider, (officer) James Flores, purchase 2.2 Million Shares at $9.70 worth $21.34 Million dollars. I like it when corporate insiders put their money where their mouth is. I’ll side with this gentleman and I am taking a position in FCX at around $10.00/share for a 1-3 year play for when the metals and material complex rebounds. We should see a 100%+ return easily.  Good luck and remember, stay diversified.

 

I am taking my family to Boston for a weekend trip, so I will not be around to make my regular weekend report on Saturday. I will return on Sunday so watch for my report by 9pm Sunday.  Sorry for the delay on the report. Remember, sometimes you have to enjoy life and live a little while you can.

 

Our BTI Signal is now in “BEAR” Condition. 

All Core positions Remain unchanged.

We have no changes in our Mini-Turbo Portfolio today.

We are 100% in CASH our Mini-Turbo Portfolio.

 

Have a great evening and I’ll see you back here Sunday evening for our Full- Weekend Report.

 

Best regards

Karl, The Bull or Bear Report.com

 

(This is the shorter mid-week report.  Full length report posted on Saturday’s before 12 noon.)

 

SIGNAL – Our BTI Signal is in “BEAR” mode. Our BTI System allocated funds are 100% Cash.  This is only for our BTI signal allocated funds. (I allocate 1/4 of my account to trading along with the BTI Signal.) The rest of the portfolio is made up of Long Term Core holdings which we do not sell, like IYM, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), CVY, DVY, IWD, etc… and our Mini-Turbo Portfolio.   We continue to hold all Long Term CORE positions.

 

Short Term Trend Oscillator, Today:  .63  (Down Trend- near buy zone)

9/23: .66,     9/22: .69,     9/21: .73,     9/18: .76,     9/17: .81,     9/16: .78

 (.65 oversold to 1.6 overbought range)

 

Remember, I try to hold off on adding to any Long Term Core positions with cash you may have until the short term trend oscillator reaches under 1.0, bottoms and starts to rise again.  I have seen this indicator bottom at .98 and I have also seen it bottom at extreme selling in the past 15 months near .67.  So it’s up to you where you decide to nibble and add at your Core positions.  But as long as it’s near an oversold area I would not worry since these will be multi-year or decade holdings.  Just watch the short term trend to pick your spot.

 

Check out my many recommendation at the bottom of my report to get ideas on what you could pick from to diversify your portfolio.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

*We continue to hold our Long Term Core holdings which should account for about 66-70% of your portfolio.*

 

Note:  My portfolio is made up of about 40% Core long term positions with dividend paying ETF’s and stocks, Gold/Silver (per my sample portfolio), 25% to my BTI Trend signal and 1/3 allocated to my Mini-Turbo Portfolio.

The 20% or so of my portfolio that is dedicated to the BTI signal I trade 50/50 between QQQ & IWM (Russell 2000 etf) so half of my position has less exposure to Apple and more exposure to smaller cap stocks.  IWM will usually appreciate higher during Bull markets that we expect to be continuing like the one at the moment. Depending on the size of your portfolio you can cut down your holdings to less until the funds grow or you continue to contribute to your savings/investment account.

** Any last minute evening Signal changes will be emailed to you by 7:30am the next morning via auto alert update.

 

GOLD/SILVER—  I continue to believe with all the monetary global printing metals and most commodities will resume their bullish move higher all in good time.  I continue to watch and wait patiently with our precious metals holdings.  Just remember to keep your allocation of Gold/Silver and some miners to less than 20% of your portfolio.  We don’t know the future and don’t want to get over invested into any one sector.  In my view Gold is a form of currency that is timeless. If you add to your holdings on a regular basis it is a good savings plan.

 

We continue to hold all our metals (10-20% maximum of our portfolio) and very small mining positions if you have any.

Oil ETF complex I like: OIH, XLE & IEZ.

Shopping list:

SLW  (A buy in the low $19’s with a 10% stop loss.)

SSRI, IAG, KGC, GDX or SIL (GDX would be your safest bet to be diversified)

Keep the total of any of these trades to under 3% of your portfolio value if you do decide to get involved.  See my sample sector allocation section of the web site to see how much you should have total exposure to Gold/Silver and miners.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS—  Full in-depth Reports posted on Saturday’s by 12 noon, about market conditions, the economy, market trends and what we should be doing to profit from this once in a lifetime liquidity driven Bull Market.  Stay tuned

The Bull or Bear Report

(Newsletters put out every evening before 8:45pm daily.  You will receive email notification once posted. If you did not receive the notification just login to the website.)

 

MARKET UPDATE:  

Dow:  Down -78.57  (-.48%) 16,201.32 (BEAR)

Transports:  Down -79.90  (-1.02%) to 7,781.38

NASDAQ:  Down -18.27 (-.38%) to 4,734.48

S&P 500: Down -6.52  (-.34%) to 1,932.24

Gold:  December Gold Up +20.60 (+1.82%) to 1,152.10 (as of 6:00 pm EST.)

Silver:  December Silver Up +.323 (+2.18%) to 15.112 (as of 6:00 pm EST)

US Dollar Index:  Down -.161 (-.17%) to 96.045

Crude Oil Futures: October Crude Down -.04 (-.11%) to 44.86/barrel

Decliners beat Advancers (from 8K+ stocks) by: 4,135 decl. to 3,014 adv.

 

Our Recommended Popular Holdings: 

QQQ  Down -.23 (-.22%) to 103.95 as of 4:00 pm (BEAR)

IWM   Up +.05 (+.04%) to  113.47 (Russell 2000 etf)

IYM   Up +.08 (+.12%)  to 65.90 (Good long term Core position. Basic Materials etf)

MOO  Down -.34 (-.73%) to 46.09   (Good Agriculture industry holding)

GDX   Up +.78 (+5.88%) to 14.04 (Large Gold mining etf)

SIL   Up +.44 (+6.97%) to 6.75  (diversified way to own the Silver miners.)

GLD  Up +2.03 (+1.88%) to 110.25  (or you can substitute with:  SGOL)

BRK.B:  Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B Shares. [12-15 month target:  $190.00]

July 31st at: $116.21,     Sept. 24th at:  $115.05,     Oct. 9th at:  $111.77   (Book Value: 1.36),      November $114.87,      December 7th at: $116.62,   Feb 5th 2014 at: $108.83,  Mar 5th 2014: $119.02  April 18th $127.18,        May 7th 127.50 ,                June 25th  127.13,           July 15th $128.45,        August 19th $134.90     Sept 16th $138.80           Oct  17th  $137.40,           Nov 13th $146.28,   December 23rd $151.52,  Jan 23rd $149.08,        Feb 17th $149.16,             Mar 20th $145.73,           April 23rd 142.45

**BRK.B IS A GREAT CORE HOLDING FOR L7ONG TERM AND FOR PEOPLE WITH LIMITED FUNDS THAT CAN ONLY HOLD A FEW POSITIONS.  BUY ON THE DIPS AND HOLD.  Berkshire is a great buy at a Book Value at under 1.1 to 1.2***

 

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF:  IWD  (pays 2% dividend)

       Oct 17:  $89.25,      Nov 21: $92.37,    Dec 28: $93.74  April 4: $96.43

 

Healthcare ETF’s below. (Great for Core position holdings)

XHS at $75.36 on 4/25/13 (Health Care Services etf. I like more.  Good Core holding)

IYH   at $100.00 on 4/25/13 (Health sector such as J&J, Pfizer, Amgen…, Dividend: 1.42%)

 

(Buy these ETF’s on DIPS:  IWD, IVW & CVY/DVY highly recommended for diversified safer yielding ETF)

CVY  (Guggenheim Multi Asset Dividend ETF)  Very Good.  Dividend yield around 5%.

DVY   (another great dividend earning etf)

IWD  (Russell 1000 Value Fund. Pays 1.9% dividend while giving you exposure to equity inflation)  ***MY FAVORITE, if you must own just one***

IVW   (S&P 500 Growth EFT. Yields over 1.42% dividend)  ***2nd Favorite for more growth***

VYM  (Blue Chip high yielding stocks etf)

XLE   (Energy Sector ETF.  Good on pull back’s for rising energy exposure. Pays +1.68% div.)

FDL   (First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders)  Pay’s $3.78% Dividend Yield. Blue chip stocks. BUY THIS ON EXTREME MARKET CRASHES.

 

Extra Suggestions (Undervalued Dividend Payers) :

BGCP:  Target  $13.85  (Real Estate broker play) Dividend 6.00%  (Stop close below $8.60)

EXG:   Target  $12.00 (Global High Income Fund) Dividend  9.94%  (Buy under $11.00 on dips)  we are up +13.68% since 7/15/13.

HMC  (Honda Motorsport):  Long, Target: $47.00; (Stay out under $31.05)  Pays 0.00% dividend

CHK (Chesapeake Energy): Target: $15.00+,  Dividend Suspended.  Great energy rebound play.

With Carl Ichan upping his stake to 7% in CHK, I think it’s a great buy in the 11’s or lower.

Very weak now due to dividend suspension.

AA (Alcoa): I recommended this in the low $13’s. Target: $15.00+  (insider buying at $13.20)  **Long Term Accumulate for when oil bounces**

 

FCX (Freeport Macmoran): Target $20.00+  Great material play rebound for next 1-3 years.  This stock used to be $40.00/share.  Insiders buying at $10.00/share.

NYMT (NY Mortgage):  Buy near $7.58,  Target: $7.00,  **16.29% Dividend Yield** (I will advise if this is removed from my list)  (Respect stop levels you place)

TGP (Teekay LNG Partners): Hold, $35.95, (Target: $32.39) 9.86% dividend.

NRF (NorthStar Realty):  Target: $23.10  (pays 8.68% dividend). Rental properties in Tri-state area, along with high end hotels and a portfolio of rental backed mortgages. *in downtrend*

 

Little Riskier Bank/brokerage plays below

KKR:  Target: $34.00,   Dividend: 6.91% (Stop: stay out below $22.05)

BX:  The BlackStone Group,  Target: $49.50 , (Stop: stay out below  $29.50)

 

HIGHER RISK MINERS & OIL PICS

Sandridge Per.Trust (PER):  Target: $10.00,  dividend suspended. (Speculative hold.)

 

Abbott Laboratories (ABT):  Target:  $45.04,  Dividend 1% only.  Recommended at $33.79.

Current price: 45.68 on 11/25/13  (Stop: Close position if below $40.90)

 

MSB, BGCP, TAL (high debt but stable shipping transport business) riskier,

* FDL (First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index ETF) yields 3.5% from Blue Chip large caps.  Good to buy AFTER major market corrections.  Very conservative income generator. **During the Monday Meltdown (August 24th) this ETF flash crashed from $22 to $12.31 and bounced back to $22.00! Use Limit orders to buy on panic days and take advantage of mispricing***

 

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTERS BELOW FOR QUICK REFERENCE 

July 20th 2012: Real Estate Special Discussion Edition

Nov 19th 12012: How to insure your portfolio

Nov 6th 2012: How to make $200K per year

 

*****TURBO MINI PORTFOLIO STRATEGY*****

Check out my new mini portfolio below called TURBO MINI STRATEGY.  It’s a purely mechanical computer generated investment model that picks superb S&P companies that have positive cash flow, positive earnings, accumulating interest and are leaders in the S&P for growth. This is a bit more of an aggressive portfolio, but if you have a large investment account then it could be a great way to supercharge a portion of those funds.  Last year in 2013 it only made about 6 trades and currently holds the 5 stocks listed below.  I will list the changes as they occur in 2014. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if the Fed will continue to print to infinity or face collapse, you can guarantee these monster growers will continue to accumulate the worlds growing cash supply and cause their stock to rise further.  And if one company fails to perform or falls off of its many growth criteria, that particular holding gets cut and replaced with another up and coming company.  I’m very excited about this new addition to our Bull or Bear Report.  Good luck, stay diversified and invest safely.

Since 2009 Compounded rate of return was 46.92%/year with Maximum Drawdown of -11.10%.

I will update portfolio as changes occur. A note will be posted at top of newsletters with changes to TURBO MINI PORTFOLIO.

TURBO Mini Portfolio G/L for today 9/11/15:  +.00%

Portfolio Gains from 1/1/13- 9/11/15:   +100.23%  (live trades)

Holding 100% in Cash.

(Portfolio Graph I will post each weekend.)

 

HISTORICAL TRADES BELOW for 2014+

9/2/15:  Sold (NOC) @ $160.95

9/2/15: Sold (AZO) @ $720.87

8/25/15: Sold (GOOGL) @$646.47 (Trailing stop rule triggered)

8/25/15: Sold (HUM) @ $177.67 (Trailing stop rule triggered)

7/27/15: Sold (BIIB) @ $305.40 (Gap down, Stop loss rule triggered)

6/30/15: BUY (HUM) @ 193.94

6/29/15: Sold (BLK) @  $344.55 (Trailing Stop loss triggered)

6/23/15: BUY (NOC) @ 165.70

6/23/15: BUY (BIIB)  @ 419.74

6/22/15: Sold (PCLN) @ $1152.87 (Trailing Stop loss triggered)

6/15/15: Sold (REGN) @ $489.66 (trail Profit stop)

4/13/15: BUY (REGN) at $461.10 open price.

4/10/15: BUY (PCLN) at 9:30am open price.

3/27/15: Sold (REGN) at $449.48  (+7.25% profit)

3/20/15: Sold (BIIB)  at $464.00  (+29% Profit)

2/13: Bought (GOOGL) on open @$547.65

1/22: Bought (REGN) on open @$419.08

1/15: Sold (UNP) at EOD @ $110.80 (below our trailing profit stop)

1/8:  Buy (BIIB) on open @359.42

1/5/14: Trailing Stop Hit (AAPL) @108.00

11/13/14: Bought (BLK) on open (9:30am) @ $350.32

10/13/14: Sold (ACT) on open (9:30am) @ $224.38

10/9/14: Sold BX on open (9:30am) @ $29.95

9/2/14: Buy ACT on open (9:30 am)  @227.07

7/17/14:  Sell to Close GWW (Grainger) at (9:30 am open price) @$242.25

6/27/14: Buy Long BX (Blackstone Group) at (9:31 am open price)

6/27/14: Sell Entire PCP on open (9;30 am) sold @ $251.34

6/6/14: Buy PCP on open (9:30 am) $270.08

6/6/14: Buy GWW on open (9:30 am) $265.45

4/23/14: Covered Short GDP on close (4pm)  26.44

4/16/14: SHORT GDP on open 4/16 (9:30 am) 24.85 Open.

4/16/14: SELL WYNN at open 4/16 (9;30 open) to close position.

*****

4/9/14: COVER OFIX at open 4/10 (9:30 open) to close.

4/7/14:  SHORT OFIX at open  4/7  (9:30 am open) to open

4/7/14: SELL GOOGLE at open 4/7 (9:30am open) to close.

3/25/14: Replaced Priceline with (UNP) Union Pacific at 9:30am open price

3/24/14:  REPLACED NETFLIX with  (WYNN) Wynn Resorts Ltd. at 9:30am open price