April 22, 2014

THE BULL OR BEAR DAILY REPORT

By: Karl Hormann

 (Mini-Turbo Portfolio)  Live Gains since Jan/2013: +110.03%

***

NOTE: NEW MINI-TURBO PORTFOLIO (SEE BOTTOM OF NEWSLETTER).  RETURNED +70%+ in 2013 & 24% in 2014

***

BTI Signal:  BULL

 (BTI:  Bull or Bear Trend Indicator Signal)  Gains since Jan/2012: +23.29%

Change from 50% Long to 100% Long on 4/10 open

(Using QQQ & IWM)

 

April 22ndAll averages closed higher today confirming our rising short term oscillator indicator. As long as we stick with great companies in rising markets, we will all make money. While markets closed higher by about half of a percent today, our Mini-Turbo portfolio closed up double that amount making a new equity high. The Mini-Turbo portfolio is a very powerful portfolio that will benefit from equity inflation which continues to grow. These are the companies that are growing earnings, are in rising trends and will benefit from inflation in the world. It’s just as simple as that.

 

My goal at the Bull and Bear Report is to show you how to invest safely, carefully and keep you invested for the long haul. Sure there are people touting that you can double your money in six months with options or leverage.  But that strategy will eventually lead you to blowing up your account and losing all your money. I want us all to be here decades from now enjoying the benefits of our growth strategy.  Just stay disciplined and stay diversified.

 

On the other side of the investment spectrum, Gold and Silver continue to struggle. I keep hearing that China, Russia and other central banks are accumulating Gold at an alarmingly brisk pace.  But it sure doesn’t reflect it in the price of Gold and Silver.  And this is why we keep our metals position at only 10-20% of our portfolio.

 

Bottom line is that you can’t print Trillions upon Trillions of paper currency around the world without effecting the price of commodities globally. It’s only a matter of time before commodity prices will catch fire and readjust. For now we look at is as our physical savings reserves that also provides us insurance and peace of mind from any future currency crisis.  Other than that today was a relatively quiet day in a stealthy and volatile bull market.

 

Our BTI Signal remains unchanged at 100% BULL phase. 

There are NO Changes in our Mini-Turbo Portfolio.

We are currently 100% invested in our Mini-Turbo Portfolio.

 

Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow before 8:30 pm for our next mid-week report.

Best regards

Karl, The Bull or Bear Report.com

 

(This is the shorter mid-week report.  Full length report posted on Saturday’s before 12 noon.)

 

SIGNAL – Our BTI Signal is currently in a “BULL” phase condition. Our BTI System allocated funds are 100% Long. This trade is only for our BTI signal allocated funds. (I allocate 1/4 of my account to trading along with the BTI Signal.) The rest of the portfolio is made up of Long Term Core holdings which we do not sell, like IYM, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), CVY, DVY, IWD, etc… and our Mini-Turbo Portfolio.   We continue to hold all Long Term CORE positions.

Short Term Trend Oscillator, Today:  1.39  (Uptrend)

4/19: 1.36,     4/18: 1.35,     4/17: 1.32,     4/16: 1.44,     4/15: 1.42     4/14: 1.37

 (.65 oversold to 1.6 overbought range)

 

Remember, I try to hold off on adding to any Long Term Core positions with cash you may have until the short term trend oscillator reaches under 1.0, bottoms and starts to rise again.  I have seen this indicator bottom at .98 and I have also seen it bottom at extreme selling in the past 15 months near .67.  So it’s up to you where you decide to nibble and add at your Core positions.  But as long as it’s near an oversold area I would not worry since these will be multi-year or decade holdings.  Just watch the short term trend to pick your spot.

 

Check out my many recommendation at the bottom of my report to get ideas on what you could pick from to diversify your portfolio.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

*We continue to hold our Long Term Core holdings which should account for about 66-70% of your portfolio.*

 

Note:  My portfolio is made up of about 40% Core long term positions with dividend paying ETF’s and stocks, Gold/Silver (per my sample portfolio), 25% to my BTI Trend signal and 1/3 allocated to my Mini-Turbo Portfolio.

The 20% or so of my portfolio that is dedicated to the BTI signal I trade 50/50 between QQQ & IWM (Russell 2000 etf) so half of my position has less exposure to Apple and more exposure to smaller cap stocks.  IWM will usually appreciate higher during Bull markets that we expect to be continuing like the one at the moment. Depending on the size of your portfolio you can cut down your holdings to less until the funds grow or you continue to contribute to your savings/investment account.

** Any last minute evening Signal changes will be emailed to you by 7:30am the next morning via auto alert update.

 

GOLD/SILVER—  I continue to believe with all the monetary global printing metals and most commodities will resume their bullish move higher all in good time.  I continue to watch and wait patiently with our precious metals holdings.  Just remember to keep your allocation of Gold/Silver and some miners to less than 20% of your portfolio.  We don’t know the future and don’t want to get over invested into any one sector.  In my view Gold is a form of currency that is timeless. If you add to your holdings on a regular basis it is a good savings plan.

 

We continue to hold all our metals (10-20% maximum of our portfolio) and very small mining positions if you have any.

Oil ETF complex I like: OIH, XLE & IEZ.

Shopping list:

SLW  (I continue to hold some shares)

SSRI, GDX, SIL, EXK, IAG, (I don’t trust any miners at this point. GDX would be your safest bet)

Keep the total of any of these trades to under 3% of your portfolio value if you do decide to get involved.  See my sample sector allocation section of the web site to see how much you should have total exposure to Gold/Silver and miners.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS—  Full in-depth Reports posted on Saturday’s by 12 noon, about market conditions, the economy, market trends and what we should be doing to profit from this once in a lifetime liquidity driven Bull Market.  Stay tuned

The Bull or Bear Report

(Newsletters put out every evening before 8:45pm daily.  You will receive email notification once posted. If you did not receive the notification just login to the website.)

 

MARKET UPDATE:  

Dow:  Up +88.68 (+.49%) 18,038.27 (BULL)

Transports:  Up +47.32  (+.54%) to 8,863.07

NASDAQ:  Up +21.07 (+.42%) to 5,035.17

S&P 500: Up +10.67  (+.51%) to 2,107.96

Gold:  June Gold Down Down -17.50 (-1.45%) to 1,185.60 (as of 6:00 pm EST.)

Silver:  May Silver Down -.260 (-1.62%) to 15.748 (as of 6:00 pm EST)

US Dollar Index:  Up +.025 (+.03%) to 98.230

Crude Oil Futures:  May Crude Up +.14 (+.25%) to 56.30/barrel

Advancers beat Decliners (from 8K+ stocks) by: 4,114 adv. to 3,074 decl.

 

Our Recommended Popular Holdings: 

QQQ   Up +.36 (+.33%) to 108.42 as of 4:00 pm (BULL)

IWM   Up +.19 (+.15%) to  125.71 (Russell 2000 etf)

IYM  Up +.19 (+.23%)  to 83.73 (Good long term Core position. Basic Materials etf)

MOO  Down -.09 (-.16%) to 54.66   (Good Agriculture industry holding)

GDX   Down -.64 (-3.20%) to 19.33 (Large Gold mining etf)

SIL   Down -.26 (-2.98%) to 8.47  (diversified way to own the Silver miners.)

GLD  Down -1.42  (-1.23%) to 113.96  (or you can substitute with:  SGOL)

BRK.B:  Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B Shares. [12-15 month target:  $190.00]

July 31st at: $116.21,     Sept. 24th at:  $115.05,     Oct. 9th at:  $111.77   (Book Value: 1.36),      November $114.87,      December 7th at: $116.62,   Feb 5th 2014 at: $108.83,  Mar 5th 2014: $119.02  April 18th $127.18,        May 7th 127.50 ,                June 25th  127.13,           July 15th $128.45,        August 19th $134.90     Sept 16th $138.80           Oct  17th  $137.40,           Nov 13th $146.28,   December 23rd $151.52,  Jan 23rd $149.08,   Feb 17th $149.16,       Mar 20th $145.73,

**BRK.B IS A GREAT CORE HOLDING FOR LONG TERM AND FOR PEOPLE WITH LIMITED FUNDS THAT CAN ONLY HOLD A FEW POSITIONS.  BUY ON THE DIPS AND HOLD.  Berkshire is a great buy at a Book Value at under 1.1 to 1.2***

Other good diversified Conglomorates like Berkshire but a bit riskier are: LUK, Y, SEB & APLCY

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF:  IWD  (pays 2% dividend)

       Oct 17:  $89.25,      Nov 21: $92.37,    Dec 28: $93.74  April 4: $96.43

 

Healthcare ETF’s below. (Great for Core position holdings)

XHS at $75.36 on 4/25/13 (Health Care Services etf. I like more.  Good Core holding)

IYH   at $100.00 on 4/25/13 (Health sector such as J&J, Pfizer, Amgen…, Dividend: 1.42%)

 

(IWD & CVY highly recommended for diversified safer yielding ETF)

CVY  (Guggenheim Multi Asset Dividend ETF)  Very Good.  Dividend yield around 5%.

DVY   (another great dividend earning etf)

IWD  (Russell 1000 Value Fund. Pays 1.9% dividend while giving you exposure to equity inflation)

VYM  (Blue Chip high yielding stocks etf)

XLE   (Energy Sector ETF.  Good on pull back’s for rising energy exposure. Pays +1.68% div.)

 

Extra Suggestions (Undervalued Dividend Payers) :

BGCP:  Target  $9.00  (Real Estate broker play) Dividend 5.38%  (Stop close below $8.44)

EXG:   Target  $12.00 (Global High Income Fund) Dividend  10.22%  (Buy under $11.00 on dips)  we are up +13.68% since 7/15/13.

HMC  (Honda Motorsport):  Long, Target: $47.00; (Stay out under $31.05)  Pays 0.00% dividend

CHK (Chesapeake Energy): Target: $25.00+,  Pays 2.54% Dividend.  Great energy rebound play.

With Carl Ichan upping his stake to 7% in CHK, I think it’s a great buy in the 14’s or lower.

NYMT (NY Mortgage):  Buy near $7.58,  Target: $11.40,  **13.71% Dividend Yield** (I will advise if this is removed from my list)

TGP (Teekay LNG Partners): Hold, $35.95, 7.79% dividend. (I will advise of changes)

NSLP (New Source Energy Partners): Hold, 16.00% dividend, (Fair value: $10.00) now at $5.00

NRF (NorthStar Realty):  Target: $23.10  (pays 8.68% dividend). Rental properties in Tri-state area, along with high end hotels and a portfolio of rental backed mortgages.

 

Little Riskier Bank/brokerage plays below

KKR:  Target: $34.00,   Dividend: 6.91% (Stop: stay out below $22.05)

BX:  The BlackStone Group,  Target: $49.50 , (Stop: stay out below  $29.50)

 

HIGHER RISK MINERS & OIL PICS

Sandridge Per.Trust (PER):  Target: $10.00,  dividend suspended. (Speculative hold.)

 

Abbott Laboratories (ABT):  Target:  $45.04,  Dividend 1% only.  Recommended at $33.79.

Current price: 45.68 on 11/25/13  (Stop: Close position if below $40.90)

 

MSB, BGCP, TAL (high debt but stable shipping transport business) riskier,

* FDL (First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index ETF) yields 3.5% from Blue Chip large caps.  Good to buy AFTER major market corrections.  Very conservative income generator.

 

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTERS BELOW FOR QUICK REFERENCE 

July 20th 2012: Real Estate Special Discussion Edition

Nov 19th 12012: How to insure your portfolio

Nov 6th 2012: How to make $200K per year

 

*****TURBO MINI PORTFOLIO STRATEGY*****

Check out my new mini portfolio below called TURBO MINI STRATEGY.  It’s a purely mechanical computer generated investment model that picks superb S&P companies that have positive cash flow, positive earnings, accumulating interest and are leaders in the S&P for growth. This is a bit more of an aggressive portfolio, but if you have a large investment account then it could be a great way to supercharge a portion of those funds.  Last year in 2013 it only made about 6 trades and currently holds the 5 stocks listed below.  I will list the changes as they occur in 2014. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if the Fed will continue to print to infinity or face collapse, you can guarantee these monster growers will continue to accumulate the worlds growing cash supply and cause their stock to rise further.  And if one company fails to perform or falls off of its many growth criteria, that particular holding gets cut and replaced with another up and coming company.  I’m very excited about this new addition to our Bull or Bear Report.  Good luck, stay diversified and invest safely.

Since 2009 Compounded rate of return was 48.07%/year with Maximum Drawdown of -11.10%.

I will update portfolio as changes occur. A note will be posted at top of newsletters with changes to TURBO MINI PORTFOLIO.

TURBO Mini Portfolio G/L for today 4/22/15:   +1.16%

Portfolio Gains from 1/1/13- 4/22/15:   +110.03%  (live trades)

AZO: Autozone,  Long 11/12/13  @ $448.27:   +54.69%

BLK: Blackrock Inc., Long 11/13/14 @ $350.32:  +5.44%

GOOGL:  Google Class A, Long 2/13/15 @ 547.65:  +.28%

PCLN: Priceline, Long 4/10/15 @ $1,187.73:   +2.12%

REGN: Regeneron Pharm., Long 4/13/15 @ 161.10:  +2.50%

100% Invested. 

(Portfolio Graph I will post each weekend.)

 

HISTORICAL TRADES BELOW for 2014+

4/13/16” BUY (REGN) at $461.10 open price.

4/10/15: BUY (PCLN) at 9:30am open price.

3/27/15: Sold (REGN) at $449.48  (+7.25% profit)

3/20/15: Sold (BIIB)  at $464.00  (+29% Profit)

2/13: Bought (GOOGL) on open @$547.65

1/22: Bought (REGN) on open @$419.08

1/15: Sold (UNP) at EOD @ $110.80 (below our trailing profit stop)

1/8:  Buy (BIIB) on open @359.42

1/5/14: Trailing Stop Hit (AAPL) @108.00

11/13/14: Bought (BLK) on open (9:30am) @ $350.32

10/13/14: Sold (ACT) on open (9:30am) @ $224.38

10/9/14: Sold BX on open (9:30am) @ $29.95

9/2/14: Buy ACT on open (9:30 am)  @227.07

7/17/14:  Sell to Close GWW (Grainger) at (9:30 am open price) @$242.25

6/27/14: Buy Long BX (Blackstone Group) at (9:31 am open price)

6/27/14: Sell Entire PCP on open (9;30 am) sold @ $251.34

6/6/14: Buy PCP on open (9:30 am) $270.08

6/6/14: Buy GWW on open (9:30 am) $265.45

4/23/14: Covered Short GDP on close (4pm)  26.44

4/16/14: SHORT GDP on open 4/16 (9:30 am) 24.85 Open.

4/16/14: SELL WYNN at open 4/16 (9;30 open) to close position.

*****

4/9/14: COVER OFIX at open 4/10 (9:30 open) to close.

4/7/14:  SHORT OFIX at open  4/7  (9:30 am open) to open

4/7/14: SELL GOOGLE at open 4/7 (9:30am open) to close.

3/25/14: Replaced Priceline with (UNP) Union Pacific at 9:30am open price

3/24/14:  REPLACED NETFLIX with  (WYNN) Wynn Resorts Ltd. at 9:30am open price